Thursday, November 13, 2008

we want ferrari next!

Year 2007 will go down as a golden year for Indian MNC’s in the field of mergers and acquisitions. A rising GDP and a good economic growth right from the beginning of the century made way for the Indian  companies to dominate the global economies…. Since everything started turning into the favor of the Indian economy, since the turn of the century it helped the Indian firms to gain competitive advantage to face global competition as well it supported them to build strong balance sheet till the mid of this decade. To give you a small idea of the scenario, Indian companies clocked an astonishing 335 deals for 43.97 billion dollars for the year 2007.

       The good part is that all the deals were into different fields. The Indian firms acquired not only strike deals in a particular sector but they were everywhere, right from metals, pharmaceuticals, industrial goods, automotive components, beverages, cosmetics and energy in manufacturing; and mobile communications, software and financial services in services, with pharmaceuticals, IT and energy being the prominent ones among these. The good part is that most of these deals were cash deals which gave a good picture of the Indian firms’ strong financial positions

           But now it seems as if the Indian economy is losing its steam. In the year 2008 the total number of deals stood at 265 with a value of 18.54 billion dollar against the 335 deals having a value of 43.97 billion dollars, in the year 2007. But still I consider it as a temporary phase which will fade away slowly over a period of time. The recent happenings such as the inflation rate and the sub prime crisis do not give a clear picture but the strong foundation, healthy balance sheets, growing economy, business principles and ethics and a bit of support by the government is  bound to help Indian firms in more mergers and acquisitions in the coming future.

Monday, October 20, 2008

equity is the winner....

since the news of the bankruptcy (lehman brothers) the indian market has not been able to recover itself... though the people blame it on the sub prime crisis for the fall, which is true to quite an extent, i personally feel that a lot goes on the part  of  the indian investor community.

   this also shows our dependence on the foreign capital. had it not been the participation of the fii and fdi, the indian market could have never reached the level it had seen in the last 1 year. but this also shows the lack of participation of indian retail investors. compared to other countries the percentage of indian population investing in the indian capital market is very less, as low as 2 percent. compared to this the participation in other countries is way ahead.

     this is one of the reasons that our stock market tumbles whenever there is a liquidity crunch in other economies. it is the responsibility of the governing bodies to educate the investor about the benefits of investing. they should encourage public participation in the indian capital market but illustrating the fact, figures and benefits of investing in the stock market. the biggest misconception amongst the indian investor community is that of losing the money. in context to investment option they consider investment in stocks as gambling. but the actual results show a completely different picture. on calculating the mean real return for a period of 10 years and beyond it is always the equity that comes out as the winner..


Monday, September 22, 2008

somebody's gain is somebody's loss!

it was really bad to see lehman brothers going down this way. one of the oldest and reputed bankers, having a history of 150 years just sank as if it was a ship (with all due respect to titanic). but then, who is to be blamed? is it the management, the sub prime crisis or the governing bodies?

till three years back lehman was on a shopping spree (quite literally),acquiring and merging small and big firms alike at a record speed. lehman’s growth rate was phenomenal. till the last year it had been considered the best, not in one aspect but a whole lot of things. given below are a few achievements that i came across on the lehman brothers website:

  1. 2000- the firm joins the s&p 100 index and its stock price hits $100 for the first time.
  2. 2002- lehman brothers executes the largest financial services ipo in history for cit group, and the largest european leveraged buyout in history for kkr and wendel investissement.
  3. 2002- the firm lead-manages the largest-ever u.s. dollar denominated debt issue for gecc.
  4. 2002- lehman brothers acquires lincoln capital management's fixed income business.
  5. 2003- lehman brothers acquires neuberger berman, positioning the firm as an industry leader in the wealth and asset management business.
  6. 2003- lehman brothers acquires the crossroads group.
  7. 2004- the firm advises on two of the top five announced mergers & acquisitions transactions worldwide: cingular wireless' acquisition of at&t wireless services; and sprint's acquisition of nextel communications.
  8. 2004- lehman brothers executes the largest capital markets transaction in the history of the u.s. utility industry for pacific gas & electric and the largest ipo globally in 2004 for belgacom sa.
  9. 2004- the firm posts record financial results, including best-ever net revenue, net income, and earnings per share. the firm increases its dividend by 33%.
  10. 2005- the firm's assets under management grow to a record $175 billion.
  11. 2005- named "best investment bank" by euromoney in its 2005 awards for excellence.
  12. 2006- ranks #1 in the barron's 500 annual survey of corporate performance for the largest companies in the u.s. and canada.
  13. 2006- #1 dealer on the london stock exchange by trading volume.
  14. 2006- advises clients on the three largest global m&a deals announced in 2006:
  15. 2007- lehman brothers ranks #1 "most admired securities firm" by fortune.
  16. 2007- acts as financial advisor on largest-ever m&a transaction in financial institutions sector: $98 billion acquisition of abn amro by a consortium of the royal bank of scotland, santander and fortis.
  17. 2007- #1 dealer on the london stock exchange by annual trading volume for the third year in a row.

financial indices were not the only indicators of lehman’s superiority. it was pretty much a status symbol. a status symbol to work for, to have an account with or to even have a neighbour or a friend who worked for lehman was a big thing. they were one of the highest recruiters from the iim’s till last year and they offered one of the highest packages in india. they had an amazing work culture, but it’s hard to understand what or who went wrong.

most people would think of the subprime crisis as satan here. the satan we all love to hate. from my view it was the credit rating agencies that led to such an ugly situation. if the rating agencies would not have issued false rating against the securities that were sold to the bankers, this situation would have never been created. but again the rating agencies are not the only one to be blamed …to quite an extent it was the governing bodies that did not look into the matters. unlike sebi and rbi, the power vested in the governing bodies out there is pretty less or should i say they are just puppets of the capitalistic greed. but ultimately it started with housing mortgage and it took its toll on the investment banking industry around the world.

to a certain extent it was lehman’s management which was at fault too, which could have rescued it during the time it started sinking, especially the ceo mr. richard s. fuld, jr. who believed too much in himself and did not feel the need of being rescued . otherwise they would have been at the same level where merrill lynch is, secured and alive. sold, but still very much alive and breathing.

it’s really bad to fall in such a situation or to be a part of such a situation. i really felt sad when i saw a bunch of lehman employees leaving the office with their faces sulking, the ids, which they used to flash through out the day being tucked deep inside their pockets and all of them having a big question mark on their faces asking for what’s next??

anyways the crux of the matter is that somebody’s loss is somebody’s gain. lehman had to pay for what the mortgage houses had done and now the axe hangs on the fate of other big investment bankers. it started away with the sub prime borrowers (who did not lose anything), then came the mortgage houses (they also dint lose much) who sold off the securities, after getting some really good ratings by the rating agencies (they also minted money), and ultimately the burden came on the investment houses and other last tier investors (such as the poor municipalities in norway), who ultimately faced the brunt of the happenings as they didn’t find any body else next in line to pass on their debts. so people might think this is a typical case where a few people lost out on their money and a few people gained that amount of money. but the problem is much worse, the money landed in unproductive hands where it will lie idle for some time and will be invested in (mostly) non performing assets. whereas the economy will be liquidity starved. hundreds of thousands of jobs will be lost. so a handful of people gained, the global economy lost…..

Friday, September 19, 2008

where are we heading?

the news in the last 3 4 days has been a real shock, especially to those who have close associations with the stock market. it came as a blow to the investor community...the closure of lehman brothers and the outright sale of merrill lynch came as a big suprise..nobody had expected the losses of subprime to go to such an extent..
but given the current scenario i feel the world is heading for another period of depression and its going to take another four to five years for the financial markets around the globe to stabilize.given the growth rate of america it was easy to assume where the economy was heading.. the growth rate had been lying stagnant for a very long time and sooner or later this had to happen...
anyways the next best thing to go for is gold at the moment...the only thing that people trust is gold..so i feel buying gold at this point of time can really give you amazing returns after a period of say 2 years, till the time these kind of financial conditions are prevailent in the market..all i expect is that these kind of things do not happen in the future, because ultimately its the shareholder who looses the money and this gives a rise to 100 more problems. i hope the world is heading for a better tomorrow!!

good going zibika!!

though i am not a very regular blogger, i felt like writing for this site, the reason being the concept and idea of zibika really appealed to me. though i am a regular investor in the market and i almost go through 10 15 sites everyday to keep my self updated, but i was really happy to see a site like this covering such quantitative conetent with nice quality...

secondly wat i liked abt zibika is the concept on which they have made this site..the whole community concept is really good..it is going to be one of the most prominent features that is going to pull users and make them stick to the site.

thirdly the best part that i liked abt the site it the amount and the width of data and information they cover regarding personal finance...rite from credit cards, markets to all the banking functions. india being a growning economy has a whole lot of new players and comsumers growing at a very fast pace and something like this was really needed and i feel the whole team of zibika has done a good effort to make it happen!!
od